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Analysis of drought and extreme precipitation events in Thailand: trends, climate modeling, and implications for climate change adaptation

José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior, David Mendes, Helder Dutra Porto, Kelvy Rosalvo Alencar Cardoso, José Augusto Ferreira Neto, Emannuel Bezerra Cavalcante da Silva, Marlúcia de Aquino Pereira, Monica Cristina Damião Mendes, Bernardo Bruno Dias Baracho, Punyawi Jamjareegulgarn

2025 · Scientific Reports, 15, 4501 · Modelling study

Full-text sections checked

Publisher HTML: Materials and methods; Results and discussion—Climatic indices (Figs. 3–6); Conclusion; Data availability.

Checked16 October 2026 · Northern, central and southern Thailand

Thai/English summaries are project paraphrases, not official translations or endorsement of the original study.

Research question

How do projected climate extremes differ across Thai regions?

Method and context

Six CMIP6 models combined using neural-network backpropagation; five extreme indices and two future forcing scenarios.

Study summary

The study compares regional dry, wet and warm spells. These are climate projections for adaptation planning, not observed disaster losses or operational forecasts.

Findings

Projected warm spells intensify particularly in northern and central regions; consecutive wet days increase especially in central and southern regions.

Contribution

Separates regional hazard patterns, supporting differentiated planning discussions rather than a single national scenario.

Interpretation limits

Authors acknowledge model uncertainty and restricted data. Our appraisal: reported scenario and index definitions need clarification before operational reuse.

Connect evidence to KSEC / OBE

Project-proposed critical-appraisal evidence, not research findings or accreditation criteria from the original authors.

K
Explain the question, concepts and findings with locators in the original.
S
Compare methods, variables and limitations with another study before designing a test or CPX.
E
Separate reported results from your proposals, cite originals and examine implications for vulnerable groups.
C
Record responses to critique and revisions after new evidence. Observe behaviour repeatedly, not from a single reading.

Related learning modules

Related knowledge domains

Original-study citation

José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior; David Mendes; Helder Dutra Porto; Kelvy Rosalvo Alencar Cardoso; José Augusto Ferreira Neto; Emannuel Bezerra Cavalcante da Silva; Marlúcia de Aquino Pereira; Monica Cristina Damião Mendes; Bernardo Bruno Dias Baracho; Punyawi Jamjareegulgarn (2025). Analysis of drought and extreme precipitation events in Thailand: trends, climate modeling, and implications for climate change adaptation. Scientific Reports, 15, 4501. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-86826-x

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